Wednesday, 30 March 2016

Cyclically due to retrace

On any fair basis, having climbed from the Feb'11th low of sp'1810 to 2056, the US market is due (at the very least) a retrace. First natural downside target is the 50dma, which in early April will be in the 1960s. As ever, the looming monthly close will be important for US and all other world equity markets.




Suffice to add, with two trading days left of the month, its going to be tough to attain another close under the 10MA, currently @ 2019.

Equity bears are going to need some dire oil inventory numbers (at least 6-7 million barrel surplus) to help swing the market lower. 

Market chatter from Schiff

Looking ahead

Wed' will see ADP jobs, and the latest EIA oil report (10.30am).

*Fed official Evans is set to speak to the 'Forecasters club' at 1pm. There is indeed some irony in a fed official at such a club, as the Fed is notoriously one of the worse economic forecasters out there, arguably only surpassed by the IMF.

*bonus chart - WTIC oil, weekly2

It is notable we currently have a blue candle. If the week closes blue, it will be a provisional sign that we've likely maxed out at $42.49. If that is indeed the case, the outlook for energy stocks - and the broader market, is bearish across April/May.

Finally involved

After what seems like years, yours truly is finally involved again. It is of course extremely difficult to catch the top of any equity cycle... and today's close was a little disappointing. However, all things considered, it is unfathomable to imagine that the market won't see some significant cooling into early April... at least to the 50dma.

I hold overnight - short the sp'500.. and long the VIX.

Goodnight from London