Thursday, 3 September 2015

Upside into the FOMC

With a powerful retrace from sp'1993 to 1903 now arguably confirmed after today's gains, there can be some confidence that the market will broadly rise into the next FOMC of Sept'17th. The only issue is where might the market get stuck... 2010, 40/50s, 70s.. or a fake out around the 2100 threshold.


China, daily


Suffice to note.. a second consecutive candle with a spiky floor.. suggestive of further upside in the near term. The weekly 10MA will be offering resistance around 2020/10 in FOMC week. A brief push above 2020 looks viable... but I find it difficult to envision sustained action above 2050/70.

re: China. A daily reversal candle to end the short week (China is now closed until next Monday)... the daily MACD (green bar histogram) is set to see a bullish cross next Mon-Wed', and that does offer upside to around 3600 in about 7-10 trading days.

From there... I expect another major rollover.. with revised primary downside to the 2500/2000 zone. Again, it has to be asked, if the Shanghai comp' does collapse ALL the way back to the summer 2014 starting point of 2K... how will the communist leadership react? How many media or bearish traders will... disappear?

Update from Oscar

Looking ahead

Primary issue will be the latest ECB meeting.. with Draghi hosting a press' conf' around 8am EST.

Data: weekly jobs, intl. trade, ISM/PMI service sector.

Goodnight from London