Thursday, 3 September 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Equity futures are moderately higher, sp +7pts, we're set to open at 1955. Continued upside looks due into next week... at least to test the big psy' level of 2000. Metals and Oil are both starting the day moderately weak.


WTIC, daily


*ECB announcement (7.45am EST)

So.. we're set to open somewhat higher, The hourly cycle is offering the 1980s in the immediate term... and that certainly seems viable by the weekend... if the market sees the monthly jobs as 'Goldilocks'.

I realise some out there are seeking renewed equity downside in the near term - not least after the Tuesday train wreck, but I remain of the view we're forming a giant wave'2 /bear flag.

In theory, the current wave from 1903 could continue upward into FOMC week, and by then.. we could be as high as 2050 or so.

For now... I won't short this market... and will merely continue with moderately sized long positions. I'd like to exit AAPL in the 114s today... that seems possible.

early movers

AAPL +0.6% @ $113
GDX, -1.1%.. as metals are on the slide, Gold -$7
TSLA +3.0%

Have a good Thursday

7.46am.. ECB rates: unchanged

*Draghi will have a press conf' in the 8am hour... market will be carefully listening.

sp' +8pts @ 1956

7.58am... meanwhile...

Coming up... Mr Draghi... jobs data.... and probably some more equity upside.

8.31am..  weekly jobs.. 282k...  inline.... remaining 'broadly low'... relative to what the data tries to reflect.

 sp +8pts.. 1956....

8.34am.. Indexes going hyper on Draghi... sp +19pts... 1967....

8.42am.. Euro weakness... USD strength... equities UP...  sp' 15pts... 1963

notable weakness: NFLX -2.3% in the $102s... really struggling

8.45am.. Broadly. Draghi is placating the market... with most EU indexes higher by 1.5%.

With USD on the rise, metals are weak, Gold -$10.

.. and here is the latest extended QE threat...

Naturally, the equity market likes to see that sort of headline.

9.08am... equities cooling... sp +7pts.. 1955...

Overall though.. still headed >1993

9.29am..  in more important news... its Draghi's 68th birthday.

9.41am.. EXITED AAPL-long  @ 112.55.    The smaller 5/15min cycles are a little stretched. and early action is not exactly inspiring me to hold.

.. I'm just a little concerned that we'll see a moderate wave lower into the afternoon.. to 111/110s.

Anyway.. its third consecutive AAPL gain (1 short, 2 long)...  so,  thats  okay.