Monday, 24 August 2015

VIX screams into the 50s

With US equities in crash mode, the VIX screamed into the 50s, settling +45.3% @ 40.74 (intra high 53.29). Near term outlook threatens continued downside to the low sp'1800s.. which would likely equate to VIX back in the 50s. Worse case for the equity bull maniacs.. sp'1700s.. with VIX 60/70s.





*the highest VIX daily close since Oct'2011

I very rarely highlight the giant monthly chart, but it really does put things into perspective. After almost four years of a subdued VIX, finally, volatility is back. This morning's intra high in the 53s is the highest VIX since Jan'2009.

Outlook/best guess. Lower equity levels look due, and that should equate to VIX back in the 50s.

However, 'best bear case' is the sp'1725/00 zone.. and that would likely equate to VIX 60/70s.

*That would make for one hell of a short-VIX entry... in instruments such as XIV.

more later... on the indexes