Monday, 24 August 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity indexes are effectively in crash mode, sp -45pts, we're set to open around 1925. Japan and China settled lower by -4.6% and -8.5% respectively. Today offers a real threat of a close in the low sp'1800s... back to the level from Oct' 2014.



It has been a long time coming since the market floored in Oct' 2011 @ sp'1074.

With the giant monthly cycles BROKEN... there is monstrous potential for downside in the days and weeks ahead.

early movers... which represent a cross section of how many stocks are trading

AAPL -5% @ $100
DIS -3% @ $95
NFLX -5% @ $98
TWTR -5% @ $24

Update from Oscar

Interesting to see his take on things... but already his first ES target (1916) has been exceeded in overnight trading (intra low 1911). I would be surprised if the market finds support in the 1880/60 zone.

Doomer chat, Hunter with Celente.

Celente used to do the mainstream media rounds up to 2008... but then he got banned... as they could not cope with a lot of his political views. As ever.. make of that... what you will.

Special note

We have a VERY serious potential for a major collapse today, at least in the realm of 5-8%.

First core target is the Oct' low of sp'1820.
Secondary target is rising support, with 38% fib retrace of the 2011 wave @ 1725/1700.

*Keep in mind, circuit breakers don't kick in until an initial fall of -7%. So.. its entirely possible we test the Oct'2014 low on many indexes, without the market being halted.

What am I doing?

Priority one.... don't lose money. I've little interest in chasing the market lower. Instead, I plan to sit back and watch the entertainment... and eventually look to pick up a bargain... but not today... and preferably... not until sp'1850/25 zone.

Have an entertaining day everyone.... and be careful out there!

7.04am... re: volatility

TVIX/UVXY, set to open +23% or so.
VXX +11%

With VIX closing at 28s.... we'll surely open somewhat close to 40. If market unravels to the low 1800s... whether today.. or later this week.. the giant 50 threshold will be danger of bring broken.

*for the traders out there... short-VIX would be a tempting trade..but to me... it is extremely risky.. and no doubt. some retail amateurs who are short-VIX across the weekend are going to see their accounts zeroed out.

sp -41pts... 1929

7.36am.. sp -49pts... 1921...    

notable strength: US bonds, TLT + 0.9% in the $127s.. .the 130s are due....

TVIX/UVXY +29%... with VXX +15%... it does bode for VIX 40s at the open.

7.40am.. sp -56pts.... 1914....    VIX is effectively going nuclear in pre-market... probably equiv' to 45 or so right now.

7.45am... NEW lows... sp -65pts... 1905.

7.59am... sp -69...  1901....  so. .we're -3.5%... half way to 'worse case'.. .aka door no'5. (morning cdude)

The 1800s are coming at the open.... with VIX 45/50

8.02am.. VOLUMN is exploding....   sp -77s.   1893....

TVIX +46%..  VXX +23%...

8.18am   The massive vol' remains the most notable aspect right now...

a micro bounce.. .  sp -63pts..  1907.   Regardless.. we've already broken into the 1800s.. with VIX surely in the 40s.

notable movers...  AAPL -6% in the 98s,  DIS -5% in the 94s,  INTC -4% in the 25s (H/S target remains 22s).

time to shop... back at 9am