Tuesday, 30 September 2014

Its rarely easy for the equity bears

Equity bears had everything in their favour to start the week, but the late morning bounce once again reminded many of the underlying 'buy the dip' mentality that continues. The weekly cycles continue to suggest some very viable further downside to come.



*the weekly 'rainbow' candle started red this morning, but turned to blue with the bounce. Regardless, another blue candle sure is better than green..and as things are, I'd guess it will flip to red again tomorrow.. to end Q3.

Brazil... whacked

I realise to many it is of little importance, but the Monday decline of -4.5%, is currently making for a net monthly decline of a very significant -10.9%

Brazil, monthly

The Bovespa is set to close the month with a bearish engulfing candle. Next support is the giant 50k threshold, that is another -8% lower. Most other world indexes are also weak, and certainly, the equity bears have a fair few interesting MACD (green bar histogram) cycle rollovers now underway.

*I will highlight ten of the world equity indexes (as usual) this coming weekend.

Looking ahead

A trio of data - Case-shiller HPI, Chicago PMI, and consumer confidence.

*next QE schedule is released tomorrow at 3pm

Holding short

For yours truly, it was a mixed day. The short-index trade I took on Friday afternoon (when everyone was getting overly bullish again) I should have exited shortly after the open.. since there was a rather clear black-fail candle on the VIX.

As it was, I'm trying to trade a bigger move to the downside, and remain holding for the 1950/40s... which still seem viable tomorrow.

Goodnight from London