Thursday, 7 August 2014

Viable upside into September

There is a high probability that sp'1911 was the low of the down wave from 1991. Equity bulls just need to break back into the 1970s... which will open the door to the 2030/40s in September, which is offered by the bigger weekly/monthly cycles.


sp'daily3 - fib levels


So, a new cycle low of sp'1911, but there is a fairly high probability that this was a key multi-week low - from the 1991 high.

First target for the bulls should be the 1970s, if that is achieved, then new historic highs look likely in September.

In terms of viable upside, the sp'2000s remain a valid target, although I realise many will be dismissive of that, after last Thursdays decline of -2% . A simple fib' extrap' of 1.6x offers the 2040s.. which is currently the upper bol' on the monthly cycle.

6% higher across 6-8 weeks.... its not like we've haven't seen that kind of gain happen many times before.

Looking ahead

Thursday will see weekly jobless claims, and consumer credit (3pm).

* there is sig'QE of around $2bn... bears beware.

I hold long (sp'500, via SPY option calls), overnight, seeking an exit in the sp'1960s.

Goodnight from London