Thursday, 7 August 2014

1pm update - Dow at the 200 day

Equity bulls have failed to hold the sp'1911 low, and most indexes are now breaking new multi-week lows. Price action remains relatively muted though, not least reflected in the VIX, only +3% in the upper 16s.

Dow, daily



*I failed to notice it until just now.. but the VIX did get an opening (hollow red) reversal candle.

With the break of 1911... have to adjust the count... but regardless of that, price action remains relatively quiet. Certainly, we're not seeing any real sig' downside like last Thursday..or even Tuesday.

I would merely see this as another opportunity for those short to exit (or at least tighten short-stops)...and a chance to go long.

Clearly though...NO turn yet on the hourly cycles.

Notable weakness: FCX -2%
Strength: NFLX +3%

1.15pm.. A micro bounce.. but with the break <1911, I've little confidence in the rest of today.

Threat of 1905/00 before the first real kick higher.

*I could have bailed this morning... and merely bought back 20pts lower... urghhh

1.32pm..more chop...and indeed that is the issue now.

Until we break >1930...I'll be suspicious of viable downside to 1905/00.

VIX is back to red...and again.. it is NOT suggestive that the equity bears have any sig' downside power.