Volatility builds powerful gains

With equities sliding across the day, the VIX built gains, settling a powerful 27.2% higher @ 16.95 - the highest daily close since mid April. Near term outlook offers a minor pull back, but the bigger issue is whether a close above the weekly 200 MA is possible in August.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

It has been a long day.. so I will be brief...

With the spike high of July'17 taken out, VIX is on the climb. There is however massive resistance in the 17s, where the weekly 200 MA is lurking. The VIX has never been able to attain a weekly close above it since Nov' 2011.

Those equity bears seeking much lower levels should indeed be looking for VIX to attain such a weekly close, whether tomorrow..or in the weeks ahead.

--
more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities ended the month sharply lower, sp -39pts (-2.0%) @ 1930. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.6% and -2.3% respectively. Friday offers a very possible rebound, but there will be massive resistance in the 1955/65 zone.


sp'60min

Summary

*earnings due from GPRO, will be one to watch.
--

....and that concludes July, a month of general chop - 1991/52 zone... but breaking lower on the last day.

What to make of today? Difficult to say, although we now have a great many ugly daily charts, and some of the weekly cycles are also problematic (in terms of the broader upward trend).

Thanks for all the comments today.... its helped keep me awake.

Have a good evening
--

more later... on the VIX

3pm update - ending the month badly

Equities are set to end the month on an especially weak note, and with today's sig' declines, most (if not all) indexes will have net monthly declines. Despite the geo-pol concerns, metals are weak, Gold -$14. VIX is holding powerful gains of 22% .


sp'60min

GLD' daily

Summary

*I wanted to highlight Gold, since it is somewhat surprisingly weak today - considering a number of geo-pol issues. Perhaps it is partly due to another Fed taper... reducing interest in the metal?

From a pure technical perspective however.. the break under the 200dma is a real bad sign.. and this has major bearish implications for the miners.
--

Its been a very long day.. I'm running on vapour fumes....are we closed yet?


3.01pm... ugly afternoon..... with Dow -270pts.... VIX +24% in the 16.50s.

Critical level in the Dow... - via the monthly charts... 16300s.

If we see Dow 16200s at ANY point in the weeks ahead.. the mid term trend will have decisively broken.


3.15pm.. just ever more nasty... Dow -290... VIX +25%.... pretty wild end to the month.

I see a few bears closing out trades... ahead of Friday jobs...and I'd be highly supportive of that.


3.23pm.. a -2% daily decline, really?  Last seen... February...feels like years.

3.30pm.. Dow is breaking below an old key level...

The 200 dma would be a real target after the next rebound.


3.40pm... This is one hell of a way to end the month. A month that was largely 4 weeks of chop within the 1950/90 zone...but failing on the very last day.

VIX intra peak so far.. 16.99... getting close to the weekly 200MA..which remains a major level since late 2011.



3.50pm.. so... what ya think?  A particularly bearish end to the month, but.... we're still only 2.75% from the historic high of just last week.

What remains laughable is that people are getting mildly hysterical over a VIX that is still only in the mid teens. That used to be the typical cyclical low!

Short memories....most.


3.52pm.. rats selling into the monthly close.......  a rare day indeed.

2pm update - bears in full control

US equities remain significantly lower, with the sp' -1.5% @ 1941 (intra low so far... 1937). VIX is holding powerful gains of 20% in the 16s.. a weekly close in the 18/19s would be a preliminary warning of a mid term trend change.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

A rebound is no doubt due at some point.. and with jobs data tomorrow, equity bears are at 'some' risk if holding overnight.

Regardless of that though, bears are ending the month with a pretty strong down day.

Just reflect on this... a mere week ago... we were making a new historic high of sp'1991.
54pts down.. across 5 trading days... but it doesn't justify any bearish hysteria...yet.
--

Notable strength: GPRO, +4.1%.. ahead of earnings at the close.
-


2.07pm... a vain attempt at a rally, but there is going to huge resistance on a back test of the low 1960s.. .whether tomorrow.. or next week.

I could understand if many will be wanting to re-short into that.


2.40pm.. chop chop... a floor of 1937 looks 'reasonable', with a natural bounce to perhaps 1960/65... but that seems unlikely to be hit until early next week.

Interesting closing hour ahead...last one of the month!

1pm update - its been a while

It has been a fair few months since we've seen a day with this type of price action. There is provisional technical damage to the daily/weekly cycles, but certainly.. nothing 'critical' yet. What is clear though, equity bears are currently in full control, with a VIX in the 16s.


VIX,weekly

Summary

I wanted to highlight the weekly VIX.

The key aspect for a very long time has been how the VIX always fails to get a weekly close above the 200 weekly MA.

Currently, that is in the 17s.

On any basis, a weekly close in the 19s would really make things 'interesting', although I'd argue that is unlikely, even with price momentum as it is.
--

Notable strength: GPRO, +3.7%.. ahead of earnings.


1.14pm Last hourly candle was somewhat spiky.. but really...even if we rally 10/15pts today, it still makes for a strong day for the bears.

Best case for the bears... a back test of 1960/65 next week..and then a much stronger down wave.

First things first though....still a few hours left of the trading month.
-


1.36pm.. VIX starting to look a bit toppy.. and it sure is overbought on the RSI

Equity bulls have a chance at starting a rebound...  but the day will still be a major victory for the bears.. even if 1950s.

12pm update - bears should be very satisfied

With the sp'500 slipping to the low 1940s, the equity bears should be very satisfied with how July is ending. Even if there is a latter day recovery... the sp' looks unlikely to close much above 1950/55. Weekly cycles...starting to look ugly.


sp'weekly8

Summary

Suffice to say... still no red candle.. but we have a clear break of the recent 4 weeks of chop.

Hourly cycles will be offering some degree of afternoon recovery... but... the month will end (surprisingly) in favour of the bears.
-

VIX update from Mr T.



---
time for lunch


12.04pm... With the break into the 1930s, weekly8... candle turns RED, first time since early April.

12.14pm.. one of those rare days when the declines...just keep being sold into.

VIX +19% in the 15.90s..... strong resistance in the 16/17 zone.

A weekly close >19... would change the mid term outlook to bearish.


12.34pm.. VIX just keeps on pushing +22% in the 16s.... 

11am update - rough morning for the bulls

US indexes have continued to slip, with significant declines, sp -1.2%, having taken out the July 10'th low, along with the 50 dma. Metals are weak, Gold -$10. VIX is building gains, +12% in the low 15s.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

*a fair bit of technical damage done this morning, including to the bigger weekly cycles, which I will highlight later.
--

Today sure is a messy end to the month. As things are... we're now at a typical turn time... but so far.. there is ZERO sign of the declines levelling out.

I realise there are a fair few individual issues - not least the Argentinian 'technical default', but still...the break under 1950 is a real surprise.

We're set for the first monthly net decline since January.


11.07am.. market attempting a spike floor from sp'1942... at what is a typical turn time.

Bears...beware!     VIX cooling .. a touch... but it did take out the July'17 geo-pol (plane/Israel) spike.


11.13am.. RSI is 73 on the VIX hourly.... it rarely stays that high for long.

I realise I said it yesterday, but I merely see this as another opportunity for the bears to close out.

I sure am curious to see what others make of this....  I'm trying to refrain from clown finance TV though..and Zerohedge. I'm guessing ZH have gone into emotional euphoria at this 'catastrophic market collapse' .... yes?


11.26am.. all indexes.. and the VIX offering a TINY sign of a turn.... on any basis... anyone short... should be careful here.

How many times in the past few years have we seen a big down Thursday...and then a crazy ramp on Friday?  I can think of at least a dozen or so occasions.

10am update - eyes on the VIX

US equities open lower with borderline significant declines of around 0.8%. The VIX is 8% higher in the 14.50s.. but well below the geo-pol spike high from July'18. With the Chicago PMI coming in at only 52... equity bulls are really struggling.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*VIX hourly candle did flip black at the open... and is offering the first sign of a reversal...
--

As ever.. on such an opening drop... typically...its a case of 'lets see if we level out around 11am'.

Notable weakness: Gold -$10... which is kinda surprising, considering some of the issues the market is not happy about are geo-pol ones, and Gold would normally benefit.


10.01am.. VIX closes the opening 30mins...in a bullish manner.... so...probably at least another hour for the equity bears.


10.05am... Really,  I think the VIX is critically important to watch today, lets see if we can get a spike top by 11am.


10.14am.. R2K holding the recent lows...

Bulls should be seeking a close back in the 1140s, which would make for another spike floor.


10.18am.. sp'500 trying to spike off the 50dma ...

10.29pm... R2K fails to hold....-1.4%... next level.. 1120... another 10pts lower.


10.39am.. Pretty ugly out there... a lot of stops getting hit now... with VIX +12% in the 15s.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are somewhat lower, sp -11pts, we're set to open at 1959 - a clear break of yesterdays low. Any close <1960 would be a net monthly decline, and also break the rather important weekly 10MA.


sp'60min

sp'weekly8

Summary

*awaiting jobless data (8.30am) and Chicago PMI (9.45am)
--

So... it looks like we'll open under yesterdays low of 1962. Whats the reason? Hard to say, but looking at the BBC news site, Israel seems intent on continuing to bomb Gaza, and maybe we're back to a market being spooked by sporadic geo-pol stories.

Next key support zone is 1952/50... the low from July 10th, and also where the 50dma is lurking.

The smaller equity cycles are already pretty low, I would merely see the open as another opportunity for equity bears to exit.

Indeed, in the opening 30-90 minutes, equity bears need to keep a watch out for a black-fail candle (VIX), and hollow red reversals (indexes).
--


What about the VIX?

The 14.50/15.00 zone looks a given early this morning, a move into the 16s would surprise me, and be suggestive of 'something new going on'.

** I didn't sleep much last night for a number of reasons, I will endeavour to be here across the day, best I can.

Good wishes for Thursday trading.


9.32am.. well, we're off and running.. and I'm surprisingly awake again.

VIX 14.50s.... eyes on the VIX for a reversal in the opening 30mins.

PMI number at 9.45am... that is kinda important...

Notable weakness, WFM, -6% in the $36s on lousy earnings.


9.38am... VIX candle turns BLACK

Equity bears should be VERY careful here.... if this black candle holds until 10am.


9.40am.. Interesting that the July 10'th low still holding....

VERY high risk of a reversal here.. hourly cycles were floored yesterday afternoon... and on a pure cyclical basis, we're due to go UP.


9.45am.. black VIX candle... flips back.... equities resume lower.  Oh well, next natural opportunity for a floor is around 11am.


9.48am.. PMI... 52.6.. .. ugly number... borderline recessionary

9.53am... VIX candle.... BLACK... again, how it closes this opening 30mins.. pretty important.

Seeking the 1980s to end July

US equities have seen a fair bit of chop this month, but overall price action remains the same. Most indexes look set for net monthly gains, which would make for an extremely impressive sixth consecutive monthly gain. August will be offering the sp'2020/30s


sp'monthly

Summary

Despite all the chop.. all the bearish chatter... it is highly notable that the sp'500 is currently 0.5% higher on the month.

The hourly cycles are VERY bullish for Thursday.. and it would not surprise me if the market ends July in the 1980s, which would make for a gain of around 1.25%.


Looking ahead

Thursday will see the usual jobless claims, but more importantly, the Chicago PMI, market is expecting a very non-recessionary 63.

*the QE schedule for August is released at 3pm
---

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

Most US indexes closed with minor gains, sp +0.1pts @ 1970 (Intraday range 1962/78). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.7% and 0.4% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed upside to new highs.. sp'1990/2000s.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

So..the two leaders managed to close moderately higher, after what was a pretty choppy day.. but then.. it was a fed day.

Overall... it would seem we have a high chance of having floored at sp'1962.

A break to new historic highs >1991, by Friday afternoon is a very viable outlook, with 2000s arguably a given in August.


Closing update from Riley



---
a little more later..

Volatility spikes.. and cools

With equities seeing some moderate swings across the day, the VIX managed a spike high of 14.07 (with sp'1962), but settling +0.4% @ 13.33. Near term outlook is for the VIX to melt back down to the 10s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

So, the VIX managed a gain for the second consecutive day. Yet, the daily candle was a bit spiky, and the close - see hourly cycle, should not inspire the equity bears.

I expect the 10s by the Friday close. The only issue is when we'll see single digit VIX. Certainly, that appears likely...whether August...or perhaps more likely... September.

-
more later...on the indexes

Closing Brief

US indexes saw some interesting swings across the day, settling a little higher, sp +0.1pts @ 1970. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.7% and 0.4% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed upside... with the 1990/2000s viable by this Friday.


sp'60min

Summary

A somewhat typical FOMC day, but with the usual underlying latter day upside.

I don't expect to see sp'1962 broken below for some weeks. I would say 'months', but... I'll only be more confident once we're back in the 1990s.

Frankly, no one can complain about today. Bears had plenty of opportunity to exit, and anyone not already long, had good chance to get involved.

--
*thanks to those who said hello today...good to know someone is out there ;)

Have a good evening
--


4.09pm... WFM miss on earnings, stock -7% in the $35s.

I don't have a position in that mess anymore though.
--

more later.. on the VIX 

3pm update - post FOMC chop

US equities have comfortably coped with QE taper'6, and most indexes look set to close with moderate gains. Metals are weak, Gold -$5, whilst Oil is lower by a somewhat significant -0.9%. VIX looks set to close negative.. in the 12s.


sp'60min

Summary

*price action sure is choppy, but then..that is normal for an FOMC afternoon.
--

Equity bulls should be content with any daily close >1972.... anything >1975 would be a bonus...and setup the 1980s tomorrow.

New historic highs in most indexes (Nasdaq remains the usual exception) appear likely within the near term.


3.04pm.. I'd be first to talk about a spike top... but the previous hourly candle is an FOMC hour candle.. and those are not often reliable.

Hourly MACD cycles are floored...everything is set for the bulls across tomorrow and Friday.


3.17pm.. chop chop.... the mid 1970s....well within range before the close.....

1980/85 will be a viable target tomorrow...

Notable weakness: GRMN, -6%.. after good earnings (but it was +9% at the open)


3.23pm spike floor on this hourly candle... here come the 1970s.


3.30pm...market looks stable...

...further upside seems likely into the close... 1972/74 zone would be fine.


3.34pm.. Dow could be +200pts tomorrow.... although that is only 1.2% or so.

Cyclically...everything is setup for the bulls from here.

Bears had their opportunity to exit.... NO excuses.


3.43pm... sp' looks strong...  Dow could close green... R2K/Trans...both moderate gains.

*I will hold moderately long overnight. Little concern for rest of the week....and indeed Aug/Sept.


3.54pm... long day.... indexes (most)...set to close green.

GDP/FOMC out of the way... next up... Friday jobs...and should be 'fine'.. at least from the markets perspective.

2pm update - time for QE taper SIX

To the surprise of many (myself included) the Fed did indeed decide that QE3 was not to be infinate after all. QE taper'6 will bring monthly QE fuel down to $25bn a month.. beginning this Friday.


sp'60min

Summary

*as far as I'm aware, there will be no Yellen press conf.
--

Expect some serious chop for this hour, but with underlying upside.

Equity bulls should be aiming for a daily close >1972.. which in my view is VERY probable. Even the low 1980s are just about possible on a mini hyper ramp into the close.

What is clear...having watched this nonsense for many years...

This setup does NOT in any way favour the bears.
-

yours... long the market..via the R2K.... seeking the 1170s by the Friday close.


2.01pm.. QE taper as expected...

Market seeing minor chop.... awaiting the whipsaw higher.


2.09pm.. and away...we go.   Next level is 1980.... possibly by the close.

back in 20mins.. ..or so.


2.35pm.... back...  and things look on track.

Notable weakness: VIX, -1%.. set for a close in the 12s.

Hourly MACD cycle is offering sig' upside tomorrow, to the 1985/90 zone.. new highs are viable at the Friday open.


2.40pm.. a choppy hour...as expected..and as noted....underlying upside.

Its.... ALL on track (are you out there Eddy?).

Thur/Friday both offering sig' upside.

1pm update - a floor at 1962

US equities have a high likelihood of having floored at sp'1962... with VIX 14.07. Metals remain weak, Gold, -$6, ahead of QE taper'6 - due to be announced at 2pm.


sp'15min

Summary

We have a 'reasonable' floor in the low 1960s... which many did correctly suggest earlier this week. I'm kinda surprised we didn't just keep pushing higher this morning, but hey.. I'm now overly biased to the upside (gods help me).

FOMC at 2pm... that will be sure to give price action a real kick.... almost certainly to the upside.

Seeking a close >1972
--
Intraday update from Riley



--
back soon


1.18pm... more minor chop....

Worse case... a brief spike lower at 2pm....and then snap higher.

I probably should have waited to use the word 'floor' before the FOMC announcement was out of the way, lol


1.29pm.. Well.... 1960 remains viable....

I've seen this situation so many times over the last few years.. and it is potentially nasty one for those on the short side. I'd still guess we close green on ALL indexes.

*it is notable that Trans/R2K remain positive.

12pm update - still no turn

US equities are mixed, with the sp/Dow moderately lower, whilst the Trans/R2K are moderately higher. Price action is still broadly bullish, and it is arguably just a matter of when the sp'1990s are hit again.. rather than 'if'. Metals are weak, Gold -$7, ahead of QE taper'6.


sp'60min

Summary

Clearly, no turn yet...

From how I see it though... equity bears have been given a bonus opportunity to close out.. ahead of the FOMC announcement.. and more importantly.. the Friday jobs data.

There can be no excuses (from the bears) for any whining later this week.. and across August.

--
VIX update from Mr T.



-
time for lunch


12.13pm.. another attempt at a spike floor from 1962....which is certainly the last 'reasonable' level I'm comfortable with.

Bulls should be pressing for the 1970/75 zone for the close...anything above that.. a bonus.


12.30pm... a good lunch... and Mr Market is attempting to level out in the 1962/60 zone.

12.38pm.. here we go... 15min cycle.... 10MA.. broken...  VIX cooling...

11am update - morning reversal

US equities have seen yet another reversal - much in the style of yesterday. Yet.. it is the typical turn time of 11am, with price action that remains nothing particularly bearish. VIX is relatively subdued +3% in the 13.60s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*opening reversal candle on the VIX... so.. for those who are bearish...I can kinda understand if you're getting excited right now
--

Well, its another day where the minor waves are at least keeping everyone awake.

Typically..we'll turn around 11am... so...lets see....
-

Notable strength: TWTR +21%, but only in the $46s.... a long way below the AH high in the $51s.


11.05am.. need 1970 to clarify a turn... until then.. threat of 1962/60....

Regardless.. none of it changes the bigger outlook.


11.10am... where is my spike floor?

*metals remain weak ahead of the next QE taper... Gold -$7.


11.17am.. provisional spike floor of 1963...still need 1970s... to clarify a turn.


11.23am.. almost clarified a turn.....

Bears had a bonus opportunity to exit after the GDP data.... there can be no excuses later this week.


11.40am.. still no clear turn...quite yet... sp'1967... need the 1970s.

10am update - opening gains

US equities open moderate higher, with borderline significant gains in the Trans/R2K. Metals are weak, Gold -$5, whilst Oil is rallying 0.6%. Equity bulls should remain in broad control for the rest of the week.


sp'60min

R2K, daily

Summary

So..will today be like yesterday, with a major snap lower around 11am?

If the Trans/R2K have indeed floored..then the rest of the market will be fine.

I'd like to see the R2K break 1160s by tomorrow...with 1170s for the weekly close.
-

Some rather wild opening price action in GRMN - having had good earnings, swings from +9% to -5% within a few minutes..as the rats sell a double top @$62.
--

*fed at 2pm...but no surprises likely there... just another QE taper.


10.02am.. micro down wave...equity bears getting another chance to exit....and likewise...anyone not already long...opportunity to go long here.

There is NO significant downside power.



10.08am... Bears getting a chance to exit... it is surely just a minor down wave.

Price action is the SAME nonsense we've seen for many months.

Micro 5/15min MACD cycles..both very close to flooring.

What a bonus for the bears this morning...or those wanting to buy.


10.15am.. major spike floor...looks set to be made...bears...beware!


10.23am.. looks like 1969 was it.... turn is in.

Now its a case.. of breaking the opening high of 1978... and then 1984.

Bulls need to be patient today.


10.41am.. chop chop.... fast approaching the typical 11am turn time. 

10.45am.... nano snap....Monday low taken out...hmm

Regardless... 11am is usually turn time.....

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +4pts, we're set to open around 1974. Metals are a touch weak, Gold -$2, whilst Oil is managing a minor gain of 0.4%. The Fed look set to announce QE taper'6 later today.


sp'60min

Summary

*ADP jobs, 218k net gains.. a little below expectations, but still 'reasonable'.

Q2 GDP: 4.0%   vs. a revised -2.1% (-2.9% previous estimate)
--

Growth comes in with a big 4 handle... MUCH better than anyone could have hoped for.

Equities rising, sp +8pts.... 1978.

Frankly...that... in my view.. seals the fate of the bears.. and the market for some months to come.

Next up.... Fed QE taper...at 2pm.. and then jobs Friday, both of which I'd see as a positive for the market.

--
Notable hyper strength: TWTR +26% @ $48.
--

Good wishes for Wednesday trading


8.57am.. So, we're set for sp +7pts... 1977.. and the 1980s look a given today.

1990/2000s are viable this Friday...which will probably equate to VIX 10s.

R2K should be in the 1150s this morning... a daily close in the 1160s.. difficult..but if the momentum builds..its just about possible.

Notable strength: GRMN +9%... on earnings I guess.


9.22am.. more notable movers...

X (US steel) +16%
UAL +3.4%

--
Metals are weak, and are highly vulnerable this afternoon.


9.37am... weird open for GRMN...now its collapsing -3%..

Awaiting an important Wednesday

Wednesday will be a major day for the US capital markets, with ADP jobs, Q2 GDP, and an FOMC announcement. Underlying price action continues to strongly favour the equity bulls, and the giant sp'2000 threshold still looks due to be hit.


sp'weekly8

Summary

In April, Q1 GDP was originally estimated at 0.1%. Two revisions later... -2.9%.

So, even if tomorrows number comes in at 2.5-3.5%... given another two months, it could eventually be revised to fractionally negative - which would make for an official recession.

Considering other data points in the past few months - notably Chicago PMI, I'd guess first reading will be around 2.7%

..and yes, that number remains artificially propped up by a significant amount of Fed QE. 
--


Looking ahead

Suffice to say...major day ahead... starting with ADP jobs (8.15am)

GDP is 8.30am - market is expecting 3.1%
FOMC announcement 2pm... there will not be a Yellen press conf.

*next sig' QE is not until at least Friday.
--


Best guess?

Even if we open lower tomorrow on weaker than expected GDP, I'd expect the weekly 10MA to hold... with 1990/2000s within the subsequent 2-4 trading days.

*I remain moderately long - via the R2K, and seeking an exit in the 1170s.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes saw a day of moderate chop, sp -8pts @ 1969. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.4% and +0.2% respectively. There is opportunity of the low 1960s, before 1990/2000s.. within the next few days.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

Suffice to say, a day of moderate chop for most indexes, ahead of Q2 GDP, and the announcement of QE taper'6.

The black-fail candle on the Transports remains the only particularly bearish aspect out there. Since that candle, we've seen 4 daily net declines... next support is around the 50dma... 8181.. that is only another 0.4% lower.

Even the weak R2K managed a minor daily gain, and looks set to make a play for the 1170s by end week.
--

Closing update from Riley


--

a little more later...

Volatility settles in the low teens

With US equities seeing some moderate swings across the day, the VIX managed some moderate gains, settling +5.7% @ 13.28. Near term outlook is for VIX to melt back into the 10s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

So.. moderate gains in the VIX, and a notable daily close in the low teens - something we don't often see lately.

Unless Q2 GDP comes in negative tomorrow - seemingly unlikely (based on other econ data points), the VIX looks set to melt lower into the 10s within the next few days.

I would be VERY surprised if we break above the geo-pol' spike high in the 15s.
--

more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

It was a day of minor swings for most indexes, sp -8pts @ 1969 (morning high, 1984). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.4% and +0.2% respectively. Near term offers the low 1960s.. but the 1990/2000s look viable shortly after.


sp'15min

sp'60min

Summary

*awaiting earnings from TWTR and AXP
---

So.. a day of relatively minor chop, with some rats selling into the close... King O's appearance sure didn't help with his comments on Russia/Ukraine.

--
As for tomorrow...

From a pure technical perspective, the 5/15/60min cycles are not particularly setup well for the bears tomorrow.

We could open in the low 1960s...but I'd expect that to hold. There are many aspects of support in the 1965/55 zone...


4.09pm....

TWTR bears getting obliterated...

Set for the $50 level

4.13pm.. TWTR +26%.... and ALL TWTR bears...utterly destroyed.

4.21pm.. A horror show for anyone short TWTR stock, now +29% in the $49s.

4.32pm.. TWTR +32% @ $50.... even a little earlier than I thought.

4.40pm... TWTR +36% @ $51s...

next upside zone is 58/60... might take until late Aug/Sept... regardless.. that is one hell of a gain today.

--
more later.. on the VIX

3pm update - minor chop into the close

US equities look set for further minor chop into the close.. ahead of what will be a very important Wednesday. Metals remain weak, Gold -$5, whilst Oil is moderately lower, -0.7%.


sp'15min

Summary

Earning at the close: TWTR, AXP
--

So much for the micro bullish pennant.. with that failing.. yet another snap lower.

A somewhat tiresome day...  I don't expect much in the closing hour.

Equity bears have a 'fair chance' at the low 1960s tomorrow morning, but new historic highs look likely shortly after.
-
R2K battling to hold gains of 0.5%


3.29pm.... From a bearish perspective, the cycles are BADLY setup for tomorrow.

5/15..even the 60min cycle are not particularly good for anyone holding short overnight.

There is sig' risk of a gap right into new highs at the Wed' open.
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3.43pm.. King O' speaking live on Ukraine..... not exactly helping the market mood.... morning low taken out.. sp'1972.

Let me be clear though... the setup for the bears tomorrow is 'technically' a lousy one. 

Sure we could open Dow -75/100pts...but I'd not expect it to last...but then, that has been the case for many...many months.