sp'weekly8
Summary
In April, Q1 GDP was originally estimated at 0.1%. Two revisions later... -2.9%.
So, even if tomorrows number comes in at 2.5-3.5%... given another two months, it could eventually be revised to fractionally negative - which would make for an official recession.
Considering other data points in the past few months - notably Chicago PMI, I'd guess first reading will be around 2.7%
..and yes, that number remains artificially propped up by a significant amount of Fed QE.
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Looking ahead
Suffice to say...major day ahead... starting with ADP jobs (8.15am)
GDP is 8.30am - market is expecting 3.1%
FOMC announcement 2pm... there will not be a Yellen press conf.
*next sig' QE is not until at least Friday.
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Best guess?
Even if we open lower tomorrow on weaker than expected GDP, I'd expect the weekly 10MA to hold... with 1990/2000s within the subsequent 2-4 trading days.
*I remain moderately long - via the R2K, and seeking an exit in the 1170s.
Goodnight from London