Thursday 31 July 2014

10am update - eyes on the VIX

US equities open lower with borderline significant declines of around 0.8%. The VIX is 8% higher in the 14.50s.. but well below the geo-pol spike high from July'18. With the Chicago PMI coming in at only 52... equity bulls are really struggling.


sp'60min


VIX'60min


Summary

*VIX hourly candle did flip black at the open... and is offering the first sign of a reversal...
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As ever.. on such an opening drop... typically...its a case of 'lets see if we level out around 11am'.

Notable weakness: Gold -$10... which is kinda surprising, considering some of the issues the market is not happy about are geo-pol ones, and Gold would normally benefit.


10.01am.. VIX closes the opening 30mins...in a bullish manner.... so...probably at least another hour for the equity bears.


10.05am... Really,  I think the VIX is critically important to watch today, lets see if we can get a spike top by 11am.


10.14am.. R2K holding the recent lows...


Bulls should be seeking a close back in the 1140s, which would make for another spike floor.


10.18am.. sp'500 trying to spike off the 50dma ...

10.29pm... R2K fails to hold....-1.4%... next level.. 1120... another 10pts lower.


10.39am.. Pretty ugly out there... a lot of stops getting hit now... with VIX +12% in the 15s.