Wednesday 30 July 2014

3pm update - post FOMC chop

US equities have comfortably coped with QE taper'6, and most indexes look set to close with moderate gains. Metals are weak, Gold -$5, whilst Oil is lower by a somewhat significant -0.9%. VIX looks set to close negative.. in the 12s.


sp'60min


Summary

*price action sure is choppy, but then..that is normal for an FOMC afternoon.
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Equity bulls should be content with any daily close >1972.... anything >1975 would be a bonus...and setup the 1980s tomorrow.

New historic highs in most indexes (Nasdaq remains the usual exception) appear likely within the near term.


3.04pm.. I'd be first to talk about a spike top... but the previous hourly candle is an FOMC hour candle.. and those are not often reliable.

Hourly MACD cycles are floored...everything is set for the bulls across tomorrow and Friday.


3.17pm.. chop chop.... the mid 1970s....well within range before the close.....

1980/85 will be a viable target tomorrow...

Notable weakness: GRMN, -6%.. after good earnings (but it was +9% at the open)


3.23pm spike floor on this hourly candle... here come the 1970s.


3.30pm...market looks stable...


...further upside seems likely into the close... 1972/74 zone would be fine.


3.34pm.. Dow could be +200pts tomorrow.... although that is only 1.2% or so.

Cyclically...everything is setup for the bulls from here.

Bears had their opportunity to exit.... NO excuses.


3.43pm... sp' looks strong...  Dow could close green... R2K/Trans...both moderate gains.

*I will hold moderately long overnight. Little concern for rest of the week....and indeed Aug/Sept.


3.54pm... long day.... indexes (most)...set to close green.

GDP/FOMC out of the way... next up... Friday jobs...and should be 'fine'.. at least from the markets perspective.