Thursday, 31 July 2014

1pm update - its been a while

It has been a fair few months since we've seen a day with this type of price action. There is provisional technical damage to the daily/weekly cycles, but certainly.. nothing 'critical' yet. What is clear though, equity bears are currently in full control, with a VIX in the 16s.



I wanted to highlight the weekly VIX.

The key aspect for a very long time has been how the VIX always fails to get a weekly close above the 200 weekly MA.

Currently, that is in the 17s.

On any basis, a weekly close in the 19s would really make things 'interesting', although I'd argue that is unlikely, even with price momentum as it is.

Notable strength: GPRO, +3.7%.. ahead of earnings.

1.14pm Last hourly candle was somewhat spiky.. but really...even if we rally 10/15pts today, it still makes for a strong day for the bears.

Best case for the bears... a back test of 1960/65 next week..and then a much stronger down wave.

First things first though....still a few hours left of the trading month.

1.36pm.. VIX starting to look a bit toppy.. and it sure is overbought on the RSI

Equity bulls have a chance at starting a rebound...  but the day will still be a major victory for the bears.. even if 1950s.