With equities seeing consistent weakness across the day, the VIX finally managed to break above the recent 16.56 high, settling +11.9% @ 16.77 (peak of 17.13). Near term trend looks to the upside, and the big 20 threshold looks set to be tested in the coming few days.
*a note on the weekly cycle, which has initial resistance of 20/21. A weekly close in the 21s..or higher..would be a key warning of 'serious market turbulence'.
For the bears, today was a significant victory. Not only has the threat of a return to the sp'1680s now clearly been removed, but the threat of sub sp'1600s is now on..along with VIX in the 20s.
Regardless of how Wednesday might open - and there is the real chance of a minor bounce in early morning, the bigger trend is clearly in favour of equity bears.
Weekly index charts..target : sp'1570/60s..with VIX in the low 20s.
more later..on those indexes