Tuesday, 27 August 2013

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. The market is clearly spooked by the likely attack against Syria. Futures are significantly lower, sp -16pts, we're set to open around 1640 - a mere 1pt above the recent low. Precious metals are soaring, Gold +$18, Oil is higher by almost 2%, to $108.



Well, things are taking a turn to the downside it would seem.

If the sp'1639 low is taken out, then we can probably forget about the 1680s.

VIX looks set to open 10% or so higher, into the mid 16s.


*Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram cycle) set to go negative cycle at open, so...there will probably be some follow through until 11am.

Next key levels..1635/25.

The obvious first 'big support' is the lower weekly bol'..currently @ 1564.

Even Mr Permabull is bearish...

Stay tuned,...busy day ahead.

8.54am... sp -17pts, set to open 1639/38, effectively confirming breaking the low..and opening up 1635/25 by 11am.

Something to keep in mind this morning...and no doubt, many others will have the same...

sp'daily4 - the 5 waves lower

So.. 5 waves lower..and then a bounce?

I find it hard to imagine we'll drop to 1564 - lower weekly bol' on a sub'5.

ohh man..another video.....this one from Walker...

So many videos..so little time..although they are arguably better than watching clown finance TV.

*note at 2min 50' ..Walker outlines the 'weekly'9d' scenario...with downside to low 1400s..AFTER a drop to the 1560/70..and then a RS bounce to 1680s. It would make for a dream autumn for the bears.

Walker makes the interesting point about the fib' retrace. Any move under 61% - sp1617..and that almost guarentees a straight fall to the 1570/60s..- where the 200 day MA is lurking.

What am I planning now, with the break of 1639 ?

Well, weekly cycles say SHORT to the 1570/60s...so...if i take a trade, it'll be a 'chase it lower' one.

First though, lets see the current wave level out by 11am..and see what sort of bounce we get into the early afternoon.

If the market is weak, then we should probably rollover into the close again.

9.33am.  VIX opens up 10%..as expected.

Typically, we should see a market floor around 11am..and some degree of bounce into 2/3pm.

Depending on the price action, I'll consider a 'chase it lower' trade..later this afternoon.

9.43am.. black candle on the hourly VIX.   Hmm, that is usually not great for the bears. ..and so far..the 1639 low is holding