Tuesday, 27 August 2013

3pm update - Mr Market is an inhuman monster

The main indexes are strongly lower, lead by the Trans/R2K, both lower by around 2.25%. The VIX has decisively cleared the strong resistance of 16.56..and the door is now open to the low 20s..at ANY point. Gold and Oil remain strongly higher.




*I have been so overly wrapped up in the smaller cycles, that I've completely failed to be part of ANY of the decline from the sp'1709 high.

That should no doubt give some of you a good laugh. The only thing left for me to do..would be to go short at sp'1570/60s.

Regardless of my own 'lost in the noise' failure, the primary trend remains clearly downward..at least on the bigger daily/weekly charts.

With the increasing war talk, VIX could easily open in the 20s tomorrow, with sp' <1600.

yours..still paralysed...if only in terms of trading.

'Nothing indeed'

updates into the close....

3.09pm.. So..the question is..who the hell will want to go long into the close for overnight?

Thats right, I didn't think so.
Its not like the Syria issue is going to 'improve' now, is it? Its just a matter of a week or so..if not days until the missiles start flying.

Key VIX thresholds..

20/21...after that...the 2012 high of 27.

VIX 27s however would surely need a break <sp'1560..which would really surprise many.

3.25pm... I am LONG VIX.

Very annoying day. Certainly..risk of a stupid bounce tomorrow, but daily AND weekly charts are VERY clear.

3.33pm..I sure do NOT like chasing the market, but the targets are pretty clear.

So...I am long VIX..will hold overnight..and gods willing...VIX 20s..within 1-3 days...certainly before the weekend.

The really BIG issue now is just what happens over the long THREE day weekend?

A Syria attack over the weekend...very likely

3.48pm.. VIX been trading over the 16.56 high for over two hours now. I have to think we'll see VIX 20/21s before the weekend.

..back at the close.