Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes closed somewhat mixed. The Dow -0.3%, the sp' flat, with the Trans and R2K rising by around 0.5%. Near term trend suggest further upside, but if last week was a key cyclical top, then the current wave higher should be ending at this time. The market remains utterly complacent.


IWM

SP

Trans

Summary

Many of the index charts are still broadly offering potential H/S formations. Of course, we won't have that confirmed until the neckline is broken below, which for the sp' is the recent 1536 low.

Best guess remains that sp'1597 was a key cyclical multi-month top. In particular, the power of the VIX last week in my view is good evidence that 'something has changed' since the last intermediate low last December.

It is difficult to ascertain how we might open Thursday, perhaps there will be brief opening gains, but latter day weakness?

More than anything, the hourly charts are highly suggestive that the bears have a chance at knocking the market lower, all the way into the Friday close.

a little more later...