Thursday 25 April 2013

3pm update - day of capitulation?

Regardless of how we close today, the bulls have to be pleased with themselves. The break into the 1590s is a major achievement after last weeks downside action. Bears need an hourly close under the 10MA, but that is 1585, and won't be easy. VIX is vainly trying to hold the 13s.


sp'60min



vix'60min


Summary

No matter how we close, anyone on the bearish side will be glad to hear the looming closing bell.

Friday could be very different from today..or much worse. I guess its laughable, but that's how it is. Time to revel in this latest cycle of delusion?
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Precious metals and Oil remain VERY strong, the latter I am especially surprised to see back in the USO mid 33s.
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UPDATE 3.01pm  sp'1587s.. hmm, thats the strongest hourly down candle (not counting the flash lower), since this rally started last Friday.

VIX almost green.

3.05pm...MACD hourly cycle about to go negative cycle, first time since last Friday. 

Oil cooling down.....VIX to go green. hmmm

Market breaking the hourly 10MA...open air down to what is arguably still a valid channel @ 1580.

3.11pm..VIX is only +1%, but its looking like it wants to break a lot higher than that tomorrow.

Its turning out to be a little interesting today after all. Any close <1590 would be something.

VIX wants to close in the 14s, and that will open up 17s tomorrow. A very interesting candle on the VIX daily charts.
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3.20pm... 40mins to go... VIX holding 1% gain..a close in the 14s would be some major consolation after whats been a lousy day.  SP' can't hold the 10MA @ 1585.

Best case for the close,  sp'1580..vix 14.25

3.30pm.. somewhat amusing to see the cheer leaders on clown TV get a little concerned about this late day sell off. After all, we're only 'allowed' to go up, right?

VIX still wants a close in the 14s
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3.35pm.. Bulls suffering from a case of full moon madness? Lunar eclipse this evening, go look to the east... or see spaceweather.com

VIX looking good into Friday...



The daily charts offer 17s tomorrow, but yes, thats a 'best case' scenario

3.45pm... A giant pink moon rises over the city, its quite a sight! Meanwhile the bulls/bears are battling it out, certainly a daily close in the 1590s looks out of range for the bulls.

Bears really need a close <1585, with VIX 14s, that is still just about viable.