Volatility on the turn

With the market having a rather flat day, the VIX was similarly unchanged, closing +0.9% @ 13.60. If the near term index/VIX count is correct, a sub'3 wave is set to begin, and the VIX will have its first real opportunity of breaking the key 20 threshold since last December.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

The down trend appears to be over for the VIX, and it closed with a very appropriate small doji candle - arguably a very good candle to suggest a turn/floor.

The underlying MACD cycle is still ticking lower though, so it will probably not be until Friday or next Monday that we'll get some solid confirmation that the recent decline was merely a wave'2 retracement.

First target are the low 15s, which is viable as early as Thursday morning. The primary target for Friday is VIX 17s, but if the market gets rattled (GDP data?), VIX 20s are a possibility into the Friday close.

more later, on the indexes