sp'weekly
sp'daily5b
Summary
It turned out to be a bit of a quiet day. The little doji candle on the sp' daily chart appropriately summarises the day. Perhaps it does indeed signal a 'minor chop' top..and Thursday will see day'1 down of the next wave.
Bears should be seeking a weekly close under the 10MA - currently @ 1554. That's only 1.5% lower across the next two trading days, so its easily viable. So long as the recent high of 1597 is not taken out, I will hold to the original outlook.
As for the 'best guess', well, we'll know soon enough if that needs to be trashed, or has any chance of occurring. Bears need to take out last weeks 1536 low, and proceed at least down into the 1490/80 zone. A few weeks bounce into mid May, and then something special ?
Oil, also ready to rollover?
I'll close tonight with two charts on Oil - via the ETF of USO. Oil has seen a significant bounce back into the low 90s - as I was expecting. The only issue now is when will it get stuck, and rollover.
USO'60min
USO, daily2
Primary downside target -as based on weekly charts in May is 28/27, which would be suggestive that WTIC will break <80. That is quiet a bold outlook, so, it will be interesting if it turns out to be right. Certainly, Oil back in the $70s would surely mean the equity market is back in the mid/low sp'1400s.
*I'm not short USO right now, but probably will be within the next few days.
--
I am heavy short the indexes, looking to exit late Friday..on the next VIX daily spike, 17+
Goodnight from London
---
VIdeo bonus to end the day...from Oscar