Thursday, 25 April 2013

12pm update - rough morning in bear land

With the market breaking back into the sp'1590s, bears are obviously dismayed, and its understandable that talk of sp'1600s is again back. Yet, despite the index gains, VIX is only down 1-2%. Is this merely a fierce and nasty capitulation bounce?


sp'60min



vix'60min


Summary

*I've meddled with the micro-count. Is it really a 5 wave up? Its just a vague guess, and it all gets thrown out if we break >1597.

I am merely sitting back, and wondering just what sort of index action we shall see tomorrow.

Even if GDP data comes in bad (although thats a very subjective issue), will the market just rally into the sp'1600s, on the notion that 'QE' will continue, and thus is good for all asset prices?

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*as it is, I'm holding short, am obviously getting scorched, but will hold into Friday. Reckless, or just 'overly tolerant'....you decide.
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12.20pm. What is absolutely clear, until we're back <1570, bears should have little confidence in the immediate term.

For those who say 1560..or even 1550s are impossible by the Friday close, I would refer them to April 15'th...a mere ten days ago.