Daily Index Cycle update

The market closed moderately lower, after the opening minor gains. The closing hour was choppy, but closed somewhat bearish, and the declines were confirmed with a slightly higher VIX. It would appear we are now seeing a new down cycle underway, the only issue is how far down do we fall, and over what time span.


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Summary

Well, that went pretty good after a somewhat annoying open. I was always concerned I was a day or two early when shorting last Thursday, and now we're past those two days, I think we are now finally seeing the underlying market weakness re-emerge.

First target for Tuesday is sp'1400, a break of that opens up a swift decline to the low from last Wednesday (remember that crazy morning reversal?) @ 1385.

The big question is can we break 1385, I believe we can 'sometime' this week, but most important, is taking out the key low of sp'1343.

Until 1343 is taken out, I will not be confident of my broader outlook, which is seeking a challenge of the June low of sp'1266.

Regardless, I am confidently holding short overnight.

A little more later