sp'monthly3, rainbow
sp'weekly2, rainbow
Summary
Today ended well for the bears. In some ways, it was good we opened a little higher - although I realise those bears who got stopped out, would not agree.
We have a good spike on the daily candles, we tested the 50 day MA - and failed, and hit (approx) the 61.8% fib retracement. The bears have a lot to be pleased about today.
Keeping an open mind
Now, I'm bearish for almost ALL of this week (I am admittedly concerned about Friday - jobs data), and I think its important to consider a few of the broader near term scenarios...
sp'daily5b three scenarios..
I can't see scenario A', the monthly charts argue against it.
I'm very much unsure whether we just fall straight down (B)- breaking the sp'1343 low, or we are yet to put in a B' wave (scenario C). I just don't know.
What will be of utmost importance, when we are trading in the 1380/70s, bears need to be very mindful, and personally, I will probably exit there, and see what happens. If market keeps falling, and takes out 1343, I'd merely rejoin the bear train.
Be absolutely clear, there is still the annoying possibility that this market might go to 1380/70..and then bounce again, perhaps even breaking into the 1430/40s. Although I will again note that the monthly charts STRONGLY argue against such an outlook.
A quick update on the daily Fib' chart.
Sp'daily7 - fibs
A break of the recent sp'1343 low, should in theory open up a test of the June low in the 1260s, and a standard 1.6x fib extension, would certainly suggest it.
Important days ahead
This week will indeed be important, not least if we can break under the 200 day MA @ sp'1385, and move into the 1370/60s. That seems a long way down, but it is viable, not least if the market gets increasinggly frustrated at the lack of a fiscal cliff agreement.After all, the clock is ticking.
Today was good, yet I have much higher (bearish) hopes for both tomorrow and Wednesday.
Goodnight from London