Tuesday 4 December 2012

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch higher, the sp +2pts, we're set to open around 1411. I'm kinda surprised at the lack of a significant gap lower. Metals and Oil are especially weak, although the dollar is also weak, falling to USD 79.60s, this is a borderline break of a 2 year up channel. More on the latter..later.


sp'60min



sp'daily5


USD, monthly, rainbow


Summary

So, no big gap lower, but the near term trend does allow for some weakness this morning. We could still trundle down to 1405/00, with the VIX 17s.

Indeed, eyes on the VIX, which should be a rough guide to re-shorting (as necessary) across this week.

I am short, seeking my next around exit around 1395/85, although right now, I'd settle for 1400 !

*what will be important for the bears, no breaks back above 1420. The daily, and monthly charts argue against such a move anyway.

RE: dollar. I'm somewhat bemused at further $ weakness in pre-market. So far, its nothing too significant, but its pretty close to breaking what is a two year channel on the monthly chart. Anything <79.50, and the channel is surely busted, which frankly, would be a big deal.

More across the day!
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UPDATE 8.50am. Indexes showing weakness, sp-2pts, set to open 1407.

I will look to (briefly) exit @ sp'1400 - if I can get it in the opening 30 minutes.

GOLD - $21... only another $60 to.go.

Be clear though, I'll merely re-short a few hours later though.
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UPDATE 9.20am Stock of the week AAPL

It will be a news story later this week. 'Death Cross' on AAPL, as the 50 crosses under the 200MA.

This X' is likely to occur BEFORE this week ends. It will very likely become a news story that the clown networks run with, not least if the main indexes are also starting to unravel.





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Futures..back to largely flat. Still looks like we'll get down to 1403/00 within the opening hour though.