Monday 3 December 2012

Volatility on the rise

With the indexes closing moderately lower, the VIX continued to rise for the second day, climbing 4.8%, to settle @ 16.64. On balance, the VIX should be 18/19 within the next few days, the only issue is whether it can break >20.


VIX'60min



VIX'daily


Summary

The VIX is most definitely on the move, and for me, the only issue is whether we will finally see the VIX bust above the key 20 threshold - a level we're not seen since late July.

All the pieces on the chess board are in place for a VIX mini-explosion, the bears should be in control for most of this week, so, there is most definitely a window of opportunity.

At minimum, I'm seeking VIX 19, but as has been the case, we could easily get stuck there, in which case the indexes would likely rally into year end.

More later..on those indexes.