Friday, 14 December 2012

Daily Index Cycle update

Today will probably be seen in the weeks ahead as an important turning point. With the FOMC out of the way, the market is now left on its own again, and the main indexes showed consistent moderate weakness across the day. The SP' closing <1420 was a very useful starting decline for the bears.

IWM, daily

Nasdaq Comp




First, lets start with the Rus'2000 small cap, where we saw yesterdays bearish engulfing candle get confirmation, with a candle that clearly breaks the multi-week up channel. This is a VERY good sign.

The tech' sector was especially weak again today, and it too has broken the up channel. The Nasdaq'100 saw a death cross today (chart not shown), I'm sure the composite will follow within the next few days.

The SP'500 broke the up channel, and today's close of sp'1419 is a good start. You can see the 3 MAs (10, 50, 100) clustered around the sp'1414/16 zone.

We can be clear about the following...

A break <sp'1410 will be VERY significant, whether it happens tomorrow, or early next week. I would expect the recent low of 1398 to be quickly taken out, and then a challenge on the 200 day MA @ 1387.

The trans did manage a green close - why not eh? , its the crazy tranny after all. Yet, we have a clear three candle spiky top, and frankly, that is the bearish chart of the day in my view.

A little more later :)