Thursday 13 December 2012

Volatility breaking higher

With the indexes showing some distinct weakness across the day, volatility is coming back to the market. The VIX closed 3.8% higher, to settle @ 16.56. A Friday close above 17.50 would be very significant.


VIX'60min



VIX'daily


Summary

Certainly, today's gains could be classed as 'barely moderate', but still, we're back in the mid 16s again, and we're less than 1.00pt away from a daily close in the mid 17s - which in my view, is the first key level to watch for tomorrow/Monday.

If we can get a close >17.50, that should mean an imminent move to 18/19. Whether we can then break the psychological 20 threshold, that is the great unknown.

I suppose if the indexes break below the 200 day MA @ sp'1387, then we have a chance at VIX 20+.

If there is one early Christmas present many bears would like, it is probably a VIX >20.

More later, on the indexes