Thursday, 19 July 2012

Volatility hits new low

With most of the indexes closing moderately higher the VIX was again weak. In AH trading the VIX closed -4% lower to 15.45. This was a new low for this down cycle, and represents extreme complacency in the wider markets.

With volatility this low...its clearly a sign of the underlying strength in the world economy, right?


VIX, daily

VIX, weekly


Another 4% lopped off the VIX. Just how low are we going? I suppose if sp'1385/90 - the extreme upper limit in my view to continue to the broader outlook, VIX might fall to 14.50 /14.00...briefly.

Bears - and those seeking to catch the floor (probably a crazy idea though), should look for a hollow red reversal candle in the opening 30 minutes of trading both tomorrow and Monday.

The TVIX, UVXY players again suffering with losses of 2 to 4%, I really can empathise with them, but we've yet to see any sign of an up turn.