Thursday, 19 July 2012

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are showing sp +6pts, we're set to open @ sp'1379 or so.

We do have four pieces of econ-data today, the usual weekly jobless claims, but also leading indicators, phil' fed survey, and existing home sales. So watch for market direction at 10am. Any opening rally is set to either be reversed hard...or to accelerate at 10am. Considering the smaller cycles, we're more likely to fall than keep going higher, but then..we are in a broad up trend still.




Many out there seem agreed we will be getting stuck somewhere around 1375-90. A few suggest as high as 1400/05, and I've yet to see anyone seriously tout new highs >1422. I read around an awful lot, and everyone from the 'moon maniacs'/astrology traders to economic fundamentalists (myself..the latter!) are seeking a turn any day now.

Next week should be very different as the critical GDP Q2 data for both the US and EU is announced. I anticipate it will be again wake up the mainstream from their usual delusion that 'everything is gonna be okay'.

More than anything, look to the daily MACD cycle (blue bar histogram) to show a rollover. Of course, if today we close up again, that won't happen, but a smaller tower is exactly what I am seeking.

So, lets see if the bears can put a lid on this up cycle.

Good wishes for Thursday trading