Thursday, 19 July 2012

On the edge of breaking the declining monthly trend

With the Sp' hitting 1375 today, we were within just 47pts - a mere 3%, of the April peak. If the monthly down trend - as marginal as it currently is, is to continue, we need to see some kind of significant decline by the end of this month (9 trading days).

Arguably, bears should look for July to close at least around the 10MA @ 1330. Best 'bear scenario' right now would be a close under the support zone of 1310/00. That is around 5/6% lower, its..possible.

sp, monthly


I'd seriously consider the bigger bearish picture - an outlook that I've held since the April rollover, in critical jeopardy if we see any daily closes over sp'1390. Any move over 1422 would of course completely destroy ALL bearish outlooks.

The remaining 9 trading days of July are going to be very important for the bears to show some 'attitude'. Bears should target at minimum, VIX 20 and SP'1330, far better though, would be VIX 25...and SP'1300.

Goodnight from London