Daily Index Cycle update - no clear turn yet

The indexes again climbed higher. Most notably, the SP' fractionally exceeded the recent 1374 peak -forming what could be a double top, although the other indexes are lagging somewhat lower.

There remains no decisive turn lower. With opex this Friday, we could merely trundle sideways into next week.


IWM

Sp

Transports

Summary

I expect the SP' MACD cycle to have displayed a clear rollover within the next 2 or 3 trading days.

The transports - the old leader, remains very weak, and a move below 5k is expected no later than the end of next week.


Near term Sp' targets...

First minor target is a break of the current hourly cycle up channel - which will be as high as 1370 at the Friday close. So bears only need a tiny decline to break the trend from the recent up move from 1325.

The second target is a pretty important one...1310/05. That was the old support level/zone that held in late June. A break of this area will open the door to a first attempt to break the June low of 1266.

Bears certainly have a lot of resistance levels to break below, but with the VIX at what is near 100% complacency, and with indexes now 100pts higher than the low from 6 weeks ago..there is pretty good risk/reward for those traders taking new short positions.

A little more later.