VIX - holding firm into next week

Despite the market rallying 1.7% (sp'index) this week, the VIX has held up very well. Perhaps the VIX holding over 21 (prior resistance, now seemingly support) is a clue that the market is yet to suffer a further (fifth wave?) lower next week.


VIX'60min

VIX, daily

VIX, weekly

Summary

VIX upper target for next week is 27-29, as based on both the 60min and daily charts. The weekly cycle would offer a brief spike to 31 - match the 2011 quake-market low.

From a MACD cycle perspective, the VIX is a little high, so any move into the upper 20s is probably a market floor -at least into the mid June period.

*If you look at the weekly cycle, from a count' viewpoint, is this entire move up from the March lows, a wave'1 ? In which case...we're due a wave'2...and then the 3' - (mid June onward?), when the big spike into the 30s/40s will occur.

If that's the case, the time to pick up some VIX calls would be in about 2-3 weeks.