Daily Cycle Update - bear flags, or a floor?

The market rallied into the close, but the broad sp'500 index still closed under the 10MA.There are now very apparent bear flags on almost every daily cycle index chart out there. If the bulls don't break significantly higher early next week, this market is going to have another down wave - the minute 5 of 5, that many seem to have now written off.


IWM, bearish outlook

SP' bearish outlook

Transports, daily

Summary

Lets start with the Transports, which has had a consistent four day up cycle already (again, the old leader, leading!). Yet, at this rate, the Tranny will be breaking new highs in just 5 days. I can't see new highs as viable after just recently breaking the hugely important 5000 level. No way!  The tranny is certainly going to be closely monitored next week.

The Sp' closed again under the 10MA, but we are now outside of the daily cycle down channel, which lasted an astounding sixteen days! On balance, we're more likely to go up for a wave'2 to at least 1370/80, but they ARE bear flags on the daily chart. The stop levels are very clear, so the big/smarter players will be fine regardless.

The overall bearish cycle outlooks still appear on track - especially when taken with the bigger weekly and monthly cycles. The primary target for the summer remains sp'1100, at which point the Bernanke will likely be ready to appear.