Sp monthly.. the giant H/S theory
I'm still inclined to this outlook, which is something a few out there are also looking at - although they are not assuming some of the sub-issues that I am.
The main sub-issue being that if this is a RS, then why would it not act in the same style as a LS would? Why not? Hey, I'm no Elliot maniac/disciple, and I sure don't intend to read any of those E-books, but its been working out so far. We have a clear rollover on the monthly, this market IS headed down.
This outlook would assume a further move lower next week (see daily chart in previous posting), and then a 2-3 week bounce - concluding no later than mid-June. Then a final move down to that really important ascending channel/wedge line of sp'1100. I suppose we don't have to get that low, but that would be the 'natural' target.....at which point the Bernanke appears.
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VIX'60min
Certainly, the price action for the VIX is not bullish right now, but the cycle is pretty much exhausted to the downside. Considering its a Friday, I think the VIX is holding up very well. Its still possible we have a moderately higher VIX close, anything above the 10MA, around 22.25 would make for a reasonable close for those holding short across the long weekend.