Friday, 25 May 2012

Sp'500 weekly cycle - scenario outlook

It has been a real choppy few days trading. Friday will more likely than not be relatively quiet, as we move into a 3 day holiday weekend for US markets. The weekly cycle remains at a tricky place to ascertain what happens next week.

SP'weekly cycle - 3 scenario chart

Sp'monthly - simple version.


Clearly, at the moment, either of the three basic scenario outlooks could yet occur. Might the bulls get a low volume ramp on Friday to 1335/40 ? That would probably be enough to start off a few further weeks of upside. Yet there are bear flags on all the daily index cycles, that certainly adds some interesting bearish possibilities for next week.

When you consider the monthly chart, the overall trend is clearly down. We have already seen a good rollover top occur, and both June and July should produce further large declines.  As noted over the last few weeks, if the 'Giant H/S' theory is correct, the move down to sp'1100 should be done within a 3 month decline - just like the LS in 2010.

Goodnight !