Monday, 26 March 2012

Stupid Bears

I'm bemused by the equity markets of the last few years. Its largely been a waste of time for the average retail trader since the late 1990s. Over a decade lost of precious time, never to be recouped. Only a somewhat crazy person would wish to be part of this high-frequency and government manipulated nonsense.

However, what does really get to me, is the sheer stupidity in the bear camp. Ohh, and I count myself in that group, not right now (I am still Long), but certainly..most of the time. How many times does the Bernanke need to appear, causing a rally, before the Bears know to not be short ahead of it?

The bears ARE right...but also gravely wrong.

The market declines are generally hard and fast...but oh so brief. The 2008 collapse wave lasted barely a year, and here we are, and its now 3 full years of what is a general mega-ramp, from sp'666 to 1416. Sure, we had two big declines, the 2010 and 2011 summer declines, but as brief..and the bounces back made them almost impossible to trade for anyone lacking psychic/magic powers.

The Bears, remain the realists. They do see the truth behind the lies, behind the money printing of the Bernanke...but truth sure doesn't matter in the western capital markets. It seems that only brief breaks in the delusion allow the market to show a glimpse of where it would probably be, were natural forces allowed to fully operate.

I've posted a lot about the monthly cycles lately, I'll post up two Fib' charts which I believe are very important for the remaining bears to seriously worry over....

IWM, monthly, fib levels

A pretty simple extrapolation - and I'm certainly not the only one who has suggested it. IWM looks set to break the important 86 level, and then make a challenge for 100/105 by late June/July. That level would equate to roughly SP'1550. No bear can dare suggest we are not in a very consistent uptrend.

SP, monthly, fib levels

The 1440 level will be challenged soon, maybe even by the end of this week. Certainly, we could fall back a few percent from there, but even then, we're still likely to break 1440 by mid April. In my view, any series of closes over 1440, and 1550 becomes a given, within the 3-6 month term.

So few Bears remain

The Bear camp lost a few more today no doubt. There really can't be many left. Three years of what has largely been pain and...more pain, and here we are today, with another handful of dirt rubbed in the face of those still holding short positions.

I sure as hell won't be one of them, last week was absolutely clear. The bears lack the energy - if that's the right term, to break this market down. Perhaps by Sp'1550 the market will be so exhausted, it'll be pretty easy to start the next cascade. Regardless, that is almost certainly many months away.

For those still holding short, I have to ask...are you really not looking at those monthly charts I keep posting?

   one of the remaining Bears.