Thursday, 29 March 2012

Metals...still WEAK, despite the chatter

There do seem to be a lot of bullish metal articles appearing in the usual sites this past week. Yet, the weekly -and monthly, charts are NOT bullish. Quite the contrary in fact.

Market UP..metals down
Market down...metals down.      Great huh?

SLV, weekly, 2yr historic

SLV is due to go negative cycle within 2 weeks. There is a real danger Silver could flash down to $25 at such time. Again, I'd argue, if we see sub $30..then the $20 target is confirmed to be hit sometime later this year. I suppose you could argue we have a bull flag for the past 2 months of trading. I am certainly open to that theory, but see how the last bull flag turned out last September. Urghh!

GLD, weekly, 2yr historic

Gold is still stronger - across the longer term than silver, but it has already been negative cycle for a month and shows no sign of turning back up.

The Metal Bugs have their Eyes Wide Shut

The Pro-Metal Webmasters -and their legion of regular posters/lurkers are seemingly not willing to open their eyes to what is happening. It seems the same thing that happened last September could well happen again. Endless 'Silver to $60 end 2012' articles are being thrown out there, and yet here we are, and both Silver and Gold are showing consistent weakness.

From a purely technical outlook...both are WEAK. Even worse, if the main market continues melting upward, the 'flight to safety' positive aspect that both metals had will likely further lessen, and that will only cause more downward pressure on the metals.