Monday, 25 March 2019

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are fractionally higher, sp +1pt, we're set to open at 2801. USD is -0.1% in the DXY 96.10s. The precious metals are moderately higher, Gold +$5, with Silver +0.8%. WTIC is -0.2% in the $58s.



re: Server. So... I'm unable to sleep, its 1am GMT, and I see an email from my web host, telling me an emergency update is being carried out, and I was to refrain from ANY updates until 7am PST.
So... here we are. 
Overnight futures were mostly moderately weak, but we've seen a recovery. The break <2800 is significant though, and gives confidence we should see a wheel of barrow of supports tested in the near term... to around sp'2750.

Its 'curious' that 2750 isn't just s/t support, but its effectively the key area for whether March settles back to m/t bearish. As noted many times recently, on balance, I do NOT see a bearish March settlement. Price structure for a number of indexes is a pretty clear multi-week bull flag.

Early movers

AAL -0.6%, weak airlines
AAPL -0.3%, major product/service day, focused on a relaunch of Apple TV. That will garner considerable mainstream attention. I've even seen paid advertisement by Apple, via Twitter, in the trending column.
AMD -1.9%
AMZN -0.8%
BA +0.4%, spurious gains, a downside reversal appears due
BABA -0.9%, weak China market
BAC -0.1%, lower yields... bearish.
BCS -0.5%, weak UK financials
BIIB +1.7%, dead cat bouncing
CGC +1.7%, price structure is a giant bullish pennant
CMG -1.2%, I see the valuation as ludicrous
DB -0.7%, weak EU financials
FB -0.5%
GDX +0.5%, higher metals
GOLD +0.3%, higher gold
INTC -0.7%
MSFT -0.4%, RBC upgrade 124>130
MT -1.4%, weak EU industrials
MU -1.2%
NEM +2.3%. Special dividend (ex div' date April 17th) of 88cents, conditional on the merger with Goldcorp (GG) being finalised.
NVDA -1.3%, weak tech-hardware
ROKU -1.2%, soft support, daily bollinger, around 60/59. Last week someone did point out to me, that perhaps the AAPL product/service day would see concerns about competition, and adversely affect ROKU.

In any case... a bear flag was provisionally confirmed on Friday. Prime target 55s. I hold SHORT, but I am pretty twitchy about the open, and will probably make a run for the exit door.
SQ -1.5%, weak with the sector. Valuation (FPE around 100) remains ludicrous
TSLA -1.4%, the stock is m/t broken, psy'200/190 support.
TWTR -0.8%, last Friday saw a failure to clear the 200dma
VALE -2.5%, warning that the 'sul superior' dam stability is 'critical condition'.
VIX +4.8% at 17.27.
WDC -1.9%,
WYNN -1.5%
X -0.5%

Overnight markets

Asian markets began the last five days of March with powerful declines, whilst Europe is only a little weak...

Japan: -3.0% at 20977
China: -2.0% at 3043
Germany: currently -0.2% at 11336
UK: currently -0.4% at 7176

Have a good Monday

*the 10am post will also be on this public site.
Normal posting will likely resume  from 11am onward.