Thursday, 13 July 2017

2pm update - metals and miners

US equities remain moderately mixed. Meanwhile, the precious metals are having issues, Gold -$2, with Silver -1.1%. The gold miner ETF of GDX is currently -0.5% in the $21.60s. With Silver and the miners having sustainably broken core rising trend, gold can be expected to follow.

GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

GDX, weekly


*I highlight the bigger weekly cycles to give some perspective.

Gold: still above core rising trend... the last hope for the gold bugs.

Silver: a fractional break of trend in May, settling under in June, and breaking new lows in July. Ugly.

GDX: following silver, with fractional breaks in May/June, and now decisively under trend.

I acknowledge price structure could be argued is a bull flag - that stretches back to around February, but still... we do have a clear break of trend in silver and the miners. On balance... gold will likely follow.

Equity update, sp'60min

Cyclically due a bearish MACD cross tomorrow morning. At minimum, a retrace to sp'2435. For a net weekly decline.. the bears need <2525.. which is interestingly the lower end of the gap zone. The key 50dma will offer big support tomorrow around 2419/20.

bonus chart...  AMD, daily

Some of the semi stocks are having real issues.... NVDA and MU are following. A cyclical rollover is underway, with a viable big move tomorrow or Monday.