Thursday, 13 July 2017

The weekly close

Last week's close was sp'2425, with a notable black-fail candle. Equity bears should be somewhat desperate to see a Friday close of 2424 or lower, preferably <2420. Weekly price momentum for the sp'500 remains moderately favouring the bears.


WTIC' weekly


sp: First, keep in mind last week's black-fail candle. Those are VERY rare on the bigger weekly cycles, and are not to be dismissed lightly. Second, note underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) which remains moderately negative, as price momentum does lean to the bears.

The key 10MA is in the low 2420s, and bears should be desperate to achieve some closes under it. Keep in mind the 50dma... currently around 2418, with the 200dma at 2305. Right now, I don't see anyone of note with a downside target <2300.

WTIC: price structure - since the $42.05 low, is arguably just a multi-week bear flag. Mid term is unquestionably bearish, as we have a series of lower highs and lower lows since the Jan'2017 high of $55.24. Things only turn bullish if oil can break and hold above the last key high of $52.00.

Oscar Carboni's bold H/S downside target of $37.00 remains valid, and I'm personally inclined to see at least 41/40 before end month.

Looking ahead

Friday will see a wheel barrow of key data: CPI, retail sales, industrial production, business inventories, and consumer sentiment.

Corp' earnings: financials:  C, JPM, and WFC. 

*Fed official Kaplan will be speaking in Mexico city early Friday, but I think the market will be far more focused on the econ-data, and the first big set of earnings.

Normal service resumes...

For the non-subscribers out there, I hope today's posts were at least somewhat interesting, which isn't easy when main market price action is narrow range. Despite the name (which shall be changed sometime soon) I endeavour to provide the most balanced market appraisal/outlook out there.

If you think I'm worth around $1 per trading day... subscribe.

Or maybe pick up 2 shares of SNAP every 6 weeks.

Goodnight from London