Thursday, 13 July 2017

3pm update - still due to swing lower

US equities remain moderately mixed. Cyclically - short term, some cooling to at least sp'2435 is due, although that looks a stretch before today's close. VIX remains reflective of a capital market that has near zero concerns. Metals remain weak, Gold -$1, with Silver -1.1%. WTIC is set to close higher by around 1% in the upper $45s.




Well, its been a somewhat frustrating day. Cyclically, we're seeing the overbought smaller 15/60min cycles reset, yet the market has still been able to lean upward, and we even saw a new historic high for the transports.

Cooling to sp'2435 remains due, lead lower by the semi-conductors.

Many closing hours in recent weeks have seen new intra highs, but then distinct weakness in the final 30 minutes.

notable weakness, NVDA, daily

Nvidia came real close to the key June 9th high of $168.50, but the buyers are faded, and its turned lower.. following AMD and MU. Arguably... a double top.

notable strength, AAPL, daily

The tech behemoth of Apple is one reason why the bears are so far unable to pull the main market lower. Its actually on track for a fifth consecutive net daily gain. Things turn very bullish with a break above the 50dma, although that looks out of range before the close.. and probably until next week, as the main market needs to at least cool to sp'2435.

I might return for a brief intrahour update at 3.30pm...




At the current rate, a bearish cross will be due by 10am tomorrow... and that'll result in 2435. A close under the hourly 10MA - 2446, is viable, as Cashin on CNBC talks about a sellside imbalance...

notable weakness, MU, daily

Note yesterday's black-fail candle, confirmed with today's weakness. I really like the company for the mid term, with the PE of just 5, its insanely mis-priced. Short term though.. it looks vulnerable.

notable strength, X, daily

US Steel finally hits first soft target of the $24.00 threshold, as Trump talks about Steel tariffs. Things turn hyper bullish with the $28s... where the 200dma is lurking.

Back at the close.. to wrap things up....