Thursday, 13 July 2017

1pm update - oil and energy

Whilst US equities are moderately mixed (Trans/R2K remain net lower). WTIC is currently +1.4% around $46.00. The energy sector ETF of XLE is currently net higher for the week by 1.0% in the $64s. With a series of lower highs and lower lows in oil, the mid term outlook remains bearish.

USO, daily

XLE weekly


WTIC/USO: today's price action is choppy, currently net higher, but vulnerable, after yesterday's black-fail candle. Mid term bearish.. at least to $41/40.

XLE: broadly weak since Dec'2016, where we saw a top with a classic black-fail candle. For now, there is ZERO sign of a turn/floor.

Equity update, sp'60min

A new intra high of 2448, just 5pts shy of a new historic high. Note the hourly 10MA - 2444, which saw the market bounce from this morning. Any break below it will offer an overdue upper gap fill to sp'2435, whether by the close or early tomorrow.

As things are, a weekly close <2425 - last week's close, looks damn difficult, as the main market is still regularly breaking new historic highs.