Thursday, 7 April 2016

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed significantly lower, sp -24pts @ 2041. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.3% and -1.4% respectively. Near term outlook offers the 2020/10 zone, before a likely bounce back to 2040/50. More broadly, the April 1'st high of sp'2075 is increasingly looking like a secure mid term high.



*closing hour action: a new intra low of 2033, with a bounce, but holding under broken support.. now resistance of 2042.

For the equity bears out there, today sure was a relief, with the best downside action in almost two months. Even the VIX started to show some upside power.

The two obvious scenarios for early Friday...

1. big gap lower to the 2020/10s... stabilise.. and then bounce across next Mon-Wed.

2. choppy open (maybe even a touch higher), but then still cooling to the 2020/10s... before a bounce next week.

In either case... I want OUT before the Friday close, to sidestep a probable bounce, and re-position for an eventual break under sp'2K.. with VIX >20.

more later.... on the VIX