Thursday, 17 March 2016

Another key lower high is due

US equities are set to solidify another key (if marginal) lower high. From the historic high of May'2015 @ sp'2134, we've seen July 2015 @ 2132, Nov'2015 @ 2116, early Dec' 2015 @ 2103, and late Dec' 2015 @ 2081. The series of lower highs bodes powerfully in favour of the equity bears.




It remains somewhat bizarre how many in the mainstream have seemingly not noticed that the market has been putting in a series of lower highs and indeed lower lows, since last summer.

This is something we haven't seen since the collapse wave of 2007/08.

I'm certainly not yet calling for a complete market implosion this year, but still... the sp'1600/1500s look a relatively 'reasonable' target.

Looking ahead

Thursday will see the usual weekly jobs, phil' fed, current acc', and leading indicators.

Getting off the sidelines

With the FOMC out of the way, I'll be looking to get involved tomorrow morning, seeking a short market trade from the sp'2030/40s, with an initial downside target of the 1940/30s. That doesn't seem an overly bold target, and looks highly probable before end month.

*bonus charts*

Today was kinda busy, and I never did get around to talking about what Oscar highlighted in his latest video. The following chart offers some basic downside targets...


If you agree with the notion of a H/S formation, a simple extrapolation from the neckline, offers the 1600/1500s.

The direct equivalent for the Dow....

... would be somewhere around 12500, which is 4800pts (27%) lower.

Goodnight from London