Friday, 22 January 2016

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are significantly higher, sp +28pts, we're set to open at 1896. A weekly close around the 1900 threshold looks probable. Metals are losing their fear bid, Gold -$5. Oil continues to bounce, +4.7% in the $31s.



Well, it seems we have 100% clarification that sp'1812 is a short term floor... same for Oil.

Now its a case of how high do we bounce.. and how long will it take.

Best guess: 1970s.... with a target of next Thursday afternoon.

I expect GDP Q4 (due Fri' Jan 27th) to upset the market, and if we're trading around 1970 next Thursday, I'll probable short into end month.

*First broader downside target remains 1750/25 zone. In theory though (especially for the wave counters out there) the monthly cycles are suggestive of a mini crash wave straight into the 1600s....

A wild spring is ahead!

early movers...

AAPL +2.1%... 98s
CHK +7.6%
FCX +5.1%
SDRL +4.5%
TWTR +3.5%

TVIX -9.9% @ $9.90, the 7s look probable by late next week.

Update from Oscar

As Oscar notes.. this is a short term bounce. I find it disappointing he doesn't at least throw out a broader downside target (does he do that in the chat room sometimes?)... but I'd imagine he is looking for at least the 1600s.. as I am.

*I'm aware a few are seeking 1200/1000 zone by October, but I'll hold to my original outlook.

Overnight action...

Japan: soars across the day... +5.9% @ 16958
China: +1.2% @ 2916
Germany: currently +2.2% @ 9781

Have a good Friday