Wednesday, 13 January 2016

2000 is a powerful brick wall

It was a day of swings for US equities, with an early high of sp'1947, but then rapidly cooling to 1914, and settling +15pts @ 1938. Near term offers further upside to the 1970/90 zone. It should be clear to most though, sp'2000 is now a powerful brick wall of resistance.


sp'weekly1c - outlook


Summary

Suffice to add... market looks set for the sp'1970/90 zone, and that will probably drag into next week (keep in mind, the market is CLOSED next Monday).

A 2-3 week bear flag is very possible, before the market resumes powerfully lower.

On no realistic outlook does sustained price action back above the psy' level of sp'2000 look possible.
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As for Oil....

*stockcharts is not showing the Tuesday intra low of $29.93 for some reason.

WTIC, monthly, 20yr


With the $30 threshold having failed, next support is around $25, back to levels last seen in 2003. Until supply is cut.. price will keep on falling. It is that simple.


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Looking ahead

Wednesday will see the latest EIA oil report, Fed beige book (2pm), and the US Treasury budget.

*Fed officials Rosengren and Evans are set to appear.
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Goodnight from London