Friday, 21 August 2015

Targets reached, time for a bounce

Unquestionably, a rough day in the US equity market, with the sp'500 settling at 2035, with Dow 16990 and VIX 19.14. The smaller hourly cycles are offering upside into next week.. with an initial target of sp'2075/80 zone. Sustained action >2100 looks out of range for some months.


Dow, weekly1b



Last evening I concluded 'The US market is in trouble'. My short term targets have all been met - earlier than expected, and now I have to assume we'll see some kind of bounce into next week.

VIX is panning out as expected, and even if it cools to the 15/14s next week, we could easily hit the 20s by end month. For me, the real issue is whether we only get to the mid/upper 20s... or the more exciting 30s.

Looking ahead

The only scheduled data is PMI manu'

Friday is opex, so expect some serious chop (with an upward bias).. especially in the late afternoon.

A profitable but frustrating day

I have very little tolerance for letting opening net gains turn into afternoon net losses, and so I placed some tight stops on a VIX-long and AAPL-short position. Naturally, I was kicked within minutes, and that was my day ended.. as I sure wasn't interested in chasing the market lower.

No doubt we'll see some strong bounces (we've not already forgotten about the post FOMC minutes Wednesday hyper-ramp to 2096 have we?).. but broadly, this market looks set for much lower levels across the next few weeks.

I can only hope I will have more patience with my next set of trades.

Goodnight from London