Friday, 21 August 2015

11am update - opex morning washout

US equities see an early bounce.. but it was fully reversed, with a new cycle low of sp'2006. VIX has not yet confirmed the renewed weakness.. getting stuck with a fractionally lower high of 22.71. USD remains broadly weak, -0.8% in the DXY 95.20s.




*note the opening black-fail candle on the VIX.. seen even on the nano scale 5min cycle. There is a viable micro double top.. with the bigger 15/60min cycles set to turn lower as the day progresses.

Clearly, a daily close in the sp'2040/50 zone looks very difficult right now.. but we're still set to get a bounce.

To be clear though, I am NOT interested in trying to be clever and trade any such anticipated bounces. Overly risky.. in my view.

Big picture 'doomer bears' should be more than content, as we've seen another huge set of bearish signals trigger today... and it should give confidence to those wishing to short the next bounce.

Personally, the most amusing thing right now is seeing the mainstream get somewhat upset as we've fallen around 5% from the recent highs.

notable weakness:  AAPL, -3.5%, FB, -3.5%... its a long list

11.08am.. new lows.. sp'2002.. with VIX 23s.. pretty incredible.

We're at typical turn time... there will be underlying natural pressure for a bounce from here to begin.

Considering the sig' downside we've seen since Wed'... there will surely be a lot of bears wanting to close out for the weekend.

*just reflect on this....    sp'2096.. Wed' afternoon.. and we're 2002

11.13am.. and there go the sp'2000 stops....  with VIX 24s.

Incredibly dire weekly candle

11.26am.. TWO consecutive days where the broader market is net lower by around 2%....  when was the last time we saw that?  Aug' 2011?