Tuesday, 7 July 2015

The China entertainment continues

Whilst US equities closed moderately lower, the more dynamic price action remains in the Chinese market. The Shanghai comp' opened higher by almost 8%, but settled +2.4% @ 3775. The 3500/300 zone remains a valid target in the immediate term.

China, daily

China, monthly


Suffice to say, June was a clear mid term top in the China market - following slightly earlier tops in most of the EU markets.

China looks set for further downside in the immediate term.. but could floor in the 3500/300 zone.. before a bounce back to 4000/4500. There remains serious threat of sustained price action <3400 in September.. and if correct.. that would make for a 50% crash, flooring around 2500.

Despite the increasingly desperate intervention of the Chinese leadership to 'inspire' higher stock prices, on any fair basis, it seems overly risky to go long China, at least until early October.

Looking ahead

Tuesday will see intl' trade and consumer credit (3pm).

However, no doubt the US/world capital markets will be almost entirely focused on the continuing Greek drama.. as negotiations are set to begin between an increasingly resolute Tsipras.. and the Troika.

Goodnight from London