Tuesday, 7 July 2015

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed moderately weak, sp -8pts @ 2068 (intra low 2058). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.5% and -0.1% respectively. Near term outlook is for further downside to the 2040/30s.. with VIX 20/21s. A key cycle low is due, with renewed upside into early August.





*Trans remains notably weak.... next support is the 8K psy level, with declining trend around 7900.  The Oct low of 7700 looks viable AFTER the next up cycle.. which itself might hit the 8500s or so.

A day for the equity bears, although clearly, not the amount of downside that many would have been dreaming about this past Sunday night.

Regardless of the intraday swings, further downside looks due across the next few days.

Sustained price action under the giant sp' 2K threshold looks extremely unlikely in the current down cycle. More likely... a floor in the 2040/30s.... and then resuming higher into August.

a little more later...